This week’s issue of Morgan Minutes steps back from the noise to highlight the key market themes that emerged from the latest research and market developments. The backdrop remains unusually cross-wired: geopolitical risk is keeping pressure on energy and sentiment, yet parts of the market continue to look oversold and capable of sharp rebounds when headlines improve.9
Economics
From the latest readings, the U.S. data indicate a resilient but moderating economy — consumers are spending again, inflation pressure from housing is subdued, and manufacturing remains in modest expansion. Labor conditions continue to cool gradually without signaling weakness.1
- Consumers are gaining confidence again, while manufacturing and housing show
mild deceleration but no major cracks.1
- Chicago PMI: 52.8 vs 54.0 prior — still expansionary (>50) but slightly weaker factory momentum in the Midwest.1
- Consumer Confidence: 91.8 vs 87.5 prior — jumped to its highest level since late 2025, showing resilience in consumer outlook.1
- FHFA Home Price Index: +0.1% m/m — minimal price growth, consistent with cooling housing momentum.1
- JOLTs Job Openings: 6.88M vs 6.85M prior — little changed, suggesting labor demand is stabilizing.1
- S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index: +1.6% m/m — home price growth re-accelerated modestly after several slower months.1
- Manufacturing remains expansionary, consumer spending revived, but housing
activity continues to decline.1
- ADP Employment: +62K — in line with expectations, modest private hiring.1
- ISM Manufacturing Index: 52.7 vs 52.8 prior — manufacturing still expanding at a steady pace.1
- Retail Sales: +0.6% m/m (0.5% ex-auto) — stronger-than-expected rebound after earlier softness, marking a pickup in consumer spending.1
- Business Inventories: -0.1% — mild destocking, consistent with efficient inventory management.1
- EIA Crude Oil: +5.45M bbl — larger-than-expected build, signaling soft demand or increased production.1
- MBA Mortgage Apps: -10.4% — sharp drop, reflecting higher mortgage rates or affordability pressures.1
3. No sign of labor stress; external trade and commodity markets normalizing.1
- Initial Jobless Claims (est.): ~212K vs 210K prior — claims remain low, suggesting job market stability.1
- Trade Balance (est.): -$49B vs -$54.5B prior — deficit expected to narrow on stronger exports or softer imports.1
- EIA Natural Gas Inventories: -54 bcf prior reading — seasonal drawdown expected.1
Current Events
CVS
CVS is pivoting its retail strategy toward smaller, pharmacy-only stores in underserved “pharmacy deserts,” reducing low-margin front-end exposure and using stores as gateways into its broader healthcare ecosystem (Aetna, Oak Street, chronic-care programs).2 The investment debate is whether this new format can lift retail margins and protect script share without heavy new capital needs, with success to be judged by script density, retail margin trends, Cost Vantage/reimbursement metrics, and clinic/Oak Street utilization.2
IBM
IBM has already demonstrated a real scientific application for quantum computing by accurately modeling magnetic crystals, signaling that useful workloads are emerging well before its 2029 fault-tolerant goal.3
LLY
Lilly is deepening its AI-first strategy by signing a drug-discovery collaboration with In Silico worth up to $2.75B, which should both strengthen its AI-native positioning and help speed development of its future pipeline.4
META
Meta is the dominant early player in smart glasses, with roughly 85% 2025 market share, and is pushing into prescription-ready designs, positioning it well if AI eyewear eventually evolves into a smartphone alternative.5
GLW
Corning and Meta are launching a large Hickory, NC optical-cable build-out under a multi-year deal worth up to $6B, with Meta as the main buyer and Corning planning to grow its NC workforce by 15–20%.6
ARM
ARM is an IP-centric, asset-light royalty platform at the heart of CPUs for smartphones, data centers, and edge AI.7 Data-center and AI royalties are growing triple-digit and are expected to overtake smartphones, while Armv9 and CSS drive structurally higher royalty rates per chip, matching our preference for capital efficient businesses where incremental revenue doesn’t require incremental capex.7 However, the stock trades at a scarcity-premium multiple, and the move into in-house AI data-center chips nudges it slightly toward a more asset-heavy risk profile.7
Market backdrop
The broad market tone this week was shaped by the push and pull between geopolitical stress and signs of technical exhaustion.9 Schwab noted that March ended with the S&P 500 down 5% for the month, while volatility remained elevated and crude stayed near $100, even as hopes for de-escalation helped spark a sharp rebound into quarter-end.9 It is hard to ignore the obvious tension: investors appear caught between inflation fears tied to oil and a competing view that prolonged energy stress could slow growth enough to push capital back toward safer assets.9
The U.S. dollar has been an important signal in this environment. Rather than weakening during stress, BCA (Bank Credit Analyst) argues that the dollar is acting more like a safe-haven asset again, helped by the United States’ relative energy advantage and by still-elevated yields.8 That matters because it suggests markets have not yet moved into full “sell America” mode, even with war risk, high oil, and fragile sentiment still in the mix.8
Themes in focus
Energy is driving the tape. Multiple indications this week emphasized that oil is now the main macro transmission mechanism into equities, yields, and sector leadership.10 Energy has been the standout sector over the last month while more cyclical groups such as materials and industrials have struggled, a sign that markets are rewarding scarcity and near-term cash flow while discounting businesses more exposed to input costs and slowing growth.9 10
Volatility is elevated, but not necessarily extreme by historical standards. My observations on the VIX frame the current reading as stressed rather than outright crisis territory, which aligns with Schwab’s broader point that a typical calendar year often includes a meaningful drawdown and that market declines are a normal part of long-term investing.9 That does not remove risk, but it does argue against treating every spike in fear as a reason to abandon quality holdings.9 10
AI infrastructure remains a structural winner, but the trade is broadening and repricing. My research continues to point toward AI-linked network, fiber, storage, and power demand as durable themes.6 12 At the same time, late-week weakness in memory and parts of semiconductors suggests investors are becoming more selective, especially where competition or supply fears are rising.9
Company and sector observations
Travel remains an area where selective opportunity may be opening. I would like to flag a more constructive view on Expedia following the selloff, partly on the idea that AI tools can strengthen travel discovery and conversion, while Airbnb’s launch of private car service in more than 125 cities shows continued expansion of the platform beyond lodging.11 The broader takeaway is that asset-light travel platforms with strong brands may still have room to deepen customer engagement even in a less forgiving macro setting.11
Telecom and connectivity infrastructure also stood out in the week’s work. AT&T’s conference commentary reinforced the idea that fiber, converged networks, and AI-driven operations are becoming strategically more important, with fiber reaching 36 million living units, links to roughly 600 U.S. data centers, and enterprise demand increasingly tied to high-speed, low-latency use cases.12 This supports the view that not all AI beneficiaries sit in chips alone; networks, optics, and digital infrastructure may also be long-duration enablers of the buildout.6 12
On the industrial and resource side, I would like to point out “green growth” stories, but with an important distinction: these are not just concept narratives. Numerous energy companies point to a market still funding infrastructure, storage, fertilizer efficiency, mining, and energy-transition capacity, though the economics remain highly sensitive to financing costs, commodity prices, and policy support.10 11 The common thread is that real-asset businesses with visible investment pipelines can still attract capital, but investors need to separate durable projects from promotional stories.10
Investment stance
The main lesson we can take away from this week’s research is that this is still a market for selectivity, not blanket optimism or blanket fear.9 Large-cap technology and AI-linked leaders continue to matter, but the environment is no longer rewarding all growth equally, and macro cross-currents are strong enough to create fast rotations across sectors and styles.9
A practical framework for this environment is to focus on three things:
- Businesses with durable demand that can absorb higher input costs or financing pressure.
- Asset-light or infrastructure-like models with clear strategic importance.
- Situations where volatility is creating dislocations, but the underlying thesis remains intact.
This week also reinforced the value of watching market internals rather than relying only on index headlines. Breadth has weakened, credit spreads have begun to widen, and quarter-end trading flows may have exaggerated some recent moves.9 11 That means patience, sizing discipline, and fundamental clarity remain especially important right now.9
Closing note
If you have questions about any of the topics in this issue, or would like to discuss how these market themes relate to your own portfolio, please reach out to BeauMorgan. We value hearing clients’ perspectives and always welcomes thoughtful conversation about any part of the market that may be on your mind.
Sources:
1 – MarketWatch Economic Calendar
2 – CVS Begins Rollout Of Smaller ‘Pharmacy-Only’ Stores (Yahoo/Forbes/Winsight link)
3 – IBM Quantum Computer Accurately Simulates Real Magnetic Materials, 03.26.26
4 – Eli Lilly–In Silico Medicine $2.75B AI Deal commentary (Multiple)
5 – Meta AI/smart glasses coverage (WSJ)
6 – Corning–Meta Hickory, NC optical-cable build-out
7 – ARM quote/overview page (Schwab)
8 – BCA “Dire Straits: The Dollar’s Energy Dividend,” 03.12.26
9 – Schwab Network market commentary
10 – BCA “Oil Spillovers: Manageable So Far But With Risks,” 03.16.26
11 – Expedia at Morgan Stanley TMT; Airbnb car service launch
12 – AT&T at NSR/BCG Global Connectivity Leaders Conference
Disclosures:
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